There's Big Money in Space!

“You have to spend money to make money.”

-What the owner of a pizza place 

once told me back in 1970

During the Apollo-Shuttle Era, no one business could invest in space because little was known about the opportunities there, and the transportation costs were too high.  There has been talk about “cheap access to space” meaning the government (NASA) should build cheaper rockets, but the reality is they are not in the business of doing so.  Not only that, they can’t, no matter how hard they try.  

For decades, there has been talk about private enterprise moving in, and now, with the shuttle gone, they are finally doing so, and not just with transportation, but with space tourism, asteroid mining, insurance, and the stock market.  Many other industries will soon come in, industries doing tasks we have never before imagined.

The communications industry, incidentally has had private satellites since the 1960s (ComSat, etc.), but this is about to expand, big time.

Before going any further, I would like to state loudly and clearly that, despite the title of this essay, you must know, and let this sink in, that no industry will invest in the space field unless they know they can turn a profit.  Without profits, there will be no incentive to go up there and invest.  When a business, any business, loses money, it folds.  Do not forget this!

This is why businesses didn’t invest in space in the past, unless it was by way of government contracts.  There, with the Moon landings and later, the shuttle, along with military rockets and satellites, profits are guaranteed, even if the project fails or is cancelled.

With the exception of the military, those days are gone.  NASA and the government will have major roles to play in the future, but not the same role as they played in the past.

Before the tourism and mining industries, before we get to settle into space, on the Moon, and eventually to Mars and beyond, we must have cheap and reliable transportation.  NASA is unable to provide this (a space shuttle launch costed $1.5 billion), but now, private industry in stepping in with SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and Boeing, and others are quickly joining the launch industry.

When it was solely NASA’s job to launch rockets, be they Delta, or Atlas, or any other class of rockets, launch costs varied, from $3000 to $6000 per pound of cargo.  To launch on the space shuttle, one had to pay about $10,000 per pound (costs are projected in 2005 dollars).  This was only to low Earth orbit.

In order to launch to geosynchronous Earth orbit, 22,300 miles up, where the satellite is above a fixed point on Earth at all times, the costs increased.  These costs varied, from $10,000 to $18,000 per pound.  Russia advertised lower costs, but these were subsidized by their government.  Real launch costs in Russia, China, and Europe are not much better.

Then came SpaceX.  SpaceX, with their Falcon Heavy, has broken the $1000 per pound launch cost barrier, and costs are projected to decrease further.  This is 10% of that of the shuttle, and the Chinese themselves have stated that they couldn’t compete with that.  This is due to 1) low manufacturing costs, where the entire rocket is built in one factory, as opposed to different stages of the rocket being built by different companies and transporting them for assembly;  2) low operations costs, efficiency and fewer man-hours required to launch and 3) high-efficiency performance.  Time is reduced, from manufacturing engines to fueling up the rocket itself.

Other private launch companies are up and coming.  Among them are XCOR, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Sierra Nevada, Boeing, and the list continues to increase as of this writing.  All of them have their own unique way of lowering costs, from hypersonics to shuttle like designed space planes, and they will complete fiercely with SpaceX for cost.  

With lower launch costs come an increase in demand from customers, doing various projects, from near zero gravity experiments to building new and privately owned space stations, space factories, a needed space infrastructure, and mining the asteroids for minerals that will be in great demand, starting with water ice.

Many of these asteroids are partly composed of water ice, and they are very easy to find.  Planetary Resources, one of two asteroid mining companies, have expressed great interest in mining these asteroids of ice, to be melted into water and used and fuel, and there is a market for it that already exists.

You might ask, “how can water be used for fuel?”  Water, H₂0, from the symbol is composed of two parts hydrogen and one part oxygen.  Through a process of electrolysis (the use of electricity, which can be obtained by using solar energy in space), you can separate these into hydrogen and oxygen.  When you fuel both into a rocket, or in this case, a satellite, it creates a reaction that will propel the rocket or satellite into its desired orbit. 

This is a market that is needed right now!  There are over 400 satellites that need refueling in order for them to remain in their proper orbits, or else their orbits will deteriorate and fall back into the Earth’s atmosphere, where they will burn.  Should this happen, and it does, all the time, the company will have to replace the satellite, with building a new one, along with the cost of launching it, which means, they will have to spend a lot of money in order to replace it.  This is just one satellite.  Think of how much it would cost to replace several, or a whole network, being 50 or more.

Should these satellites be refueled, they can propel themselves back into their proper orbits, adding years, perhaps decades, of use, thus saving the companies who own them millions, billions of dollars.

The market for fuel will be huge.   How much will these companies pay for these fuels, to keep their satellites in orbit?  Gold, as of this writing, is said to be worth $18,000 per pound.  Water, in space is said to be worth $23,000 per pound.  In space, water is worth more than gold.  

It is estimated that it would cost $50 million to fuel one satellite per year.  The price may sound steep, but think about the cost of building a new satellite plus the cost of launching it.  With 400 satellites needing fuel to stay in orbit, we are looking at a $20 billion a year market, just with water from asteroids alone.  

Later, we can build fueling depots in space, not just for satellites, but with any rocket launched from Earth needing to venture further than low Earth orbit (200 miles up).  This could lessen the need for heavy lift launch vehicle from Earth (i.e. the proposed Space Launch System).  Space stations also need refueling, for the same reason as satellites. 

Water would be a fuel, but would also be for traditional uses:  sustenance for humans and plants (agriculture).  One little known fact is that water can also be used for radiation shielding.  One cubic meter of water can shield all radiation, especially in the event of solar flares.

Water will be the first extraterrestrial element to be harvest from asteroids, and it won’t be the last.  Asteroids are also composed of other elements, among them being Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), for computers, components in solar power satellites, and, of course, jewelry.  Other metals will be mined for construction materials for space stations, habitats, factories, and settlements on the Moon.  Wealth will come from all these elements, along with the process of manufacturing materials needed for construction of space colonies.  Mostly, whatever is mined in space will be used in space.  

Factories in zero gravity will produce pure crystals, alloys, and medicines, chemical mixtures and compounds that cannot be mixed on Earth because of its gravity.  New cures for diseases can be found, and its being done on the International Space Station right now.  Of course, mass producing all this will bring in profits.

Space tourism, the first money making venture on the list, will become popular as costs decrease, with orbital flights, stays in orbiting hotels, and eventually, on the Moon.

Transportation will play a large part in all this, and what will be needed is fuel.  This will not come from the Earth, but the asteroids near Earth’s orbit.

And so it begins.  Space tourism will come first, then, when we reach an asteroid, we will start to mine it, starting with the most valuable element, water.  This process will then start a chain reaction, a slow one, but a reaction nonetheless, of what will be needed afterwards to either stay in business, and create new businesses.  Many of these will be those that we, at present, can’t even imagine.  

Recently, a new company called “Tethers Unlimited” proposed to build a satellite, or many satellites, that can construct large structure in space by using tethers, generating them and then spinning them, like that of a spider, into whatever shape it pleases.  This process is similar to that of a 3-D printer, which is being used on the International Space Station right now.  This is something I never would have imagined.  

Anyway, once transportation, and then mining of water from asteroids takes off, there will be other industries following in their wake, and space business will start to boom into a multi-trillion dollar economy.  That’s right, trillion!

Alastair Browne